Today’s piece is an exercise based on questions I’m often asked at this time of year: How does this draft class compare to the previous one? How do the top prospects compare? So today, I try to answer those questions. I will take the top 10 picks from last year’s draft, incorporating their 2023-24 seasons, and compare them to the top 10 players in this year’s class. How do I determine the top 10 in 2024? I’ve decided to use the latest scout survey from TSN’s Bob McKenzie, although I should note that his survey doesn’t include Oshawa winger Beckett Sennecke or Calgary defenseman Carter Yakemchuk, two players I believe are likely top-10 picks.
Advertisem*nt
1. Connor Bedard, C, 2023 draft
Bedard tops this list due to his dynamic offensive traits. He has special offensive skills and goal-scoring ability and was a special prospect going into his draft. I don’t think he’s light years better than the next best guy, though, and could imagine a world though where one of Celebrini, Carlsson or Fantilli becomes the better NHL player in 10 years’ time.
In fact as pure hockey talents going into their drafts, I would say he’s neck and neck with Celebrini. Bedard has more skill and natural finishing ability, but Celebrini is excellent in those areas, while being bigger, faster and better off the puck.
2. Macklin Celebrini, C, 2024 draft
3. Adam Fantilli, C, 2023 draft
4. Leo Carlsson, C, 2023 draft
I’m a huge Adam Fantilli fan. I think he has tremendous skill to go with size, speed and tenacity and I see a very bright NHL future for him. Celebrini and Carlsson have better hockey sense, though, and plenty of skill as well. I think all three of them project as star No. 1 centers.
5. Artyom Levshunov, RHD, 2024 draft
6. Matvei Michkov, RW, 2023 draft
Levshunov vs. Michkov is razor-tight for me. Levshunov looks like a potential No. 1 defenseman in the NHL who is big, mobile and can provide a lot of offense. Michkov is a small winger, but he has special hands and offensive sense and he has played very well versus men and looks like a potential impact winger.
7. Anton Silayev, LHD, 2024 draft
8. Zeev Buium, LHD, 2024 draft
9. Will Smith, C, 2023 draft
10. Ivan Demidov, RW, 2024 draft
Colleague Max Bultman once asked me how I would rate Demidov versus Smith, and I think it would be a fascinating debate. Smith is super-skilled, but Demidov is arguably more skilled. Smith is a little taller and a little faster and plays the middle. It would be a tight call.
Advertisem*nt
11. Nate Danielson, C, 2023 draft
12. Zayne Parekh, RHD, 2024 draft
13. Cayden Lindstrom, C, 2024 draft
14. Sam Dickinson, LHD, 2024 draft
Readers know I’m a big fan of Nate Danielson. His start to this season was a bit concerning in Brandon, but after he got moved to Portland, he looked a lot like the player I thought he was coming up as a draft-eligible. He’s a big center who can skate, has very good offensive skills and can play both ways. That should make for an excellent NHL center, even if I don’t see this massive point-production as a pro. I would lean to him over a super-skilled, albeit at times limited, defensively player in Parekh, or elite athletes in Dickinson and Lindstrom, about whom I have some offensive upside questions.
15. Tij Iginla, LW, 2024 draft
16. Ryan Leonard, RW, 2023 draft
Iginla versus Leonard would be a great debate. They are both highly competitive wingers who play hard and can score goals. If I had to find some differences, I would say Iginla is a bit more of a natural scorer, whereas Leonard has more physicality in his game. Their pure skill level, frames and skating are rather similar, though. I marginally lean to Iginla because of the extra offensive touch, but it’s a true coin flip.
17. Dmitri Simashev, LHD, 2023 draft
Dickinson versus Simashev or Reinbacher would be a tough call for me. Dickinson is a premium skater, and while Reinbacher and Simashev both skate very well, Dickinson’s feet are a grade higher in my book. Simashev and especially Reinbacher move the puck smoother and both will probably have a bit more offense in the NHL, although I don’t see as big a gap there as I do with the feet.
18. Konsta Helenius, C, 2024 draft
19. David Reinbacher, RHD, 2023 draft
20. Dalibor Dvorsky, C, 2023 draft
Dvorsky versus Helenius is the last debate point I see in this group. Helenius is faster than Dvorsky and makes more plays, but Dvorsky is a way more of a natural goal-scorer and is bigger. Dvorsky will likely be better on an NHL power play, but I like the way Helenius plays more at even strength.
(Photos of Macklin Celebrini and Connor Bedard: Richard T Gagnon, Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
Corey Pronman is the senior NHL prospects writer for The Athletic. Previously, Corey worked in a similar role at ESPN. Follow Corey on Twitter @coreypronman
